Civilian targeting in African conflicts: A poor actor’s game that spreads through space

Armed conflict actors frequently target civilian populations. Thus, an improved understanding of such behaviour could pave the way to reducing it. We use Civilian Targeting Index (CTI) and a broad array geo-referenced data investigate spatio-temporal economic dynamics targeting by in Africa. Two main insights are generated. First, African non-state is strongly influenced other proximate actors. In particular, tend increase their after nearby have done so. Possible mechanisms explain spatial spillovers include emulation retaliation. Second, negative relationship between activity exists applies both state addition, CTIs with population density, geographical spread duration. State higher average than do, but gap two actor types tends close during long-duration conflicts.